With the news of the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara dumping the People Democratic Party, PDP for the All Progressives Congress, APC, many have been wondering what could have led to the shocking move by the Bauchi born politician.
The move by Dogara was more stunning knowing that Dogara was only a few days ago the chairman of the Screening committee of the PDP in the Ondo 2020 governorship election, with many seeing the assignment given to him by the National leadership of the PDP as an indication that all was well within the party.
Dogara, had on Friday joined the All Progressives Congress, following a meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari in the company of Mallam Mai Mala Buni, Governor of Yobe State and the chairman of the APC interim Caretaker Committee.
But amid the speculations as to the possible reasons behind the defection of the top class lawmaker, it has now emerged that his religion and geopolitical zone could have played a big part in his decision to return to the All Progressives Congress.
It was gathered that Dogara didn’t just decide to join the APC again, on his own, but some of the top echelon of the party in Abuja and even his state of Bauchi looked at the calculations within the APC and intimated the former Speaker that his chances of being relevant politically in the APC are much more brighter than if he remains in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP especially as regards the 2023 calculations.
*The Northern Christian* *calculation*
If you look across the All Progressives Congress in the North, almost all the heavyweight politicians are mostly Muslims, with perhaps only Boss Mustapha the Secretary to Government of the Federation and chairman of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 the only big politician with a Christian extraction. And Boss Mustapha himself is not particularly a rallying figure in the North, even within the APC in his home state of Adamawa.
So Dogara joining the APC gives the party more options within the party in case the APC top hierarchy decides to settle for a Southern Muslim politician as the party’s presidential candidate in 2023, with a Northern Christian used as his running mate.
*The Bola Tinubu angle*
Of course when the APC is mulling the possibility of having a Southern Muslim as a presidential flag bearer, then it’s National leader and former governor of Lagos state, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be its best bet and only option.
According to findings, it was gathered that despite the dissolution of the Adams Oshiomhole led National Working Committee NWC by the National Executive Council, NEC of the party, the Interim Caretaker Committee and the presidency are still open to the Bola Tinubu Presidency in 2023 and if the Jagaban manages to get the nod as the standard bearer of the party, Hon. Dogara would easily slot in as his Vice presidential running mate in 2023.
Recall that Tinubu being a Muslim prevented him from being Buhari’s running mate in 2015 following the backlash that greeted the idea of a Muslim – Muslim ticket. And this led Tinubu to drop his ambition and gave Prof. Yemi Osinbajo the nod instead. So, 2023 is Tinubu’s best chance of finally achieving his life long dream of occupying Aso Rock.
*The North East factor*
Dogara being from Bauchi State and the North East zone, it is another advantage following the outcry from the zone to be reckoned with in the calculation for a plum job within the presidency.
The North East zone has always felt cheated when it comes to sharing political offices, with former vice president, Atiku Abubakar being the highest the zone has attained since the return of democracy in 1999.
And incidentally, Boss Mustapha is alps from the North East, and this means if the calculation is right that Tinubu gets the Presidential ticket, the Running Mate slot would be a keenly contested battle between Dogara and Boss Mustapha.