#2019Election: THE LIKELY OUTCOME OF THE 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Dr ABUBAKAR ALKALI

The 2019 Presidential elections are a few weeks away and the excitement is building up towards the decisive elections on February 16. Usually, exit polls are taken as voters leave a polling booth as a representation of their voting pattern.

Clearly, the 2019 Presidential election is a two-horse race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

The trend in past elections including the 2015 general elections has been that a Presidential candidate stands the chance of winning a state-or at least 25% of the votes- if his party controls that state. This pattern may change in 2019 but not very likely going to change the fortunes of the two worthy Presidential candidates.

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION:
The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria 1999 (as altered) in section 133 (b) states that : A candidate to the office of the President is deemed to have been duly elected if he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of all the states in the federation and the federal capital territory, Abuja.
This means that a candidate needs to score 25% in at least 24 states of the federation or 23 and FCT.

REGISTERED VOTERS IN THE 36 STATES AND FCT:
The number of registered voters across the states as released by INEC are as follows:

1. Abia 1,932,892
2 Adamawa 1,973,083
3 Akwa Ibom 2,119,727
4 Anambra 2,447,996
5 Bauchi 2,462,843
6 Bayelsa 923,182
7 Benue 2,480,131
8 Borno 2,315,956
9 Cross River 1,527,289
10 Delta 2,845,274
11 Ebonyi 1,459,933
12 Edo 2,210,534
13 Ekiti 909,967
14 Enugu 1,944,016
15 FCT 1,344,856
16 Gombe 1,394,393
17 Imo 2,272,293
18 Jigawa 2,111,106
19 Kaduna 3,932,492
20 Kano 5,457,747
21 Katsina 3,230,230
22 Kebbi. 1,806,231
23 Kogi 1,646,350
24 Kwara 1,406,457
25 Lagos 6,570,291
26 Nasarawa 1,617,786
27 Niger 2,390,035
28 Ogun 2,375,003
29 Ondo 1,822,346
30 Osun 1,680,498
31 Oyo 2,934,107
32 Plateau 2,480,455
33 Rivers 3,215,273
34 Sokoto 1,903,166
35 Taraba 1,777,105
36 Yobe 1,365,913
37 Zamfara 1,717,128

Total 84,004,084

The total number of registered voters for the 2019 elections has appreciated by more than 14 million compared to 2015 when 70, 383,427 registered to vote.

The total number of registered voters may not be used as a realistic voting figure for 2019 since some voters may not be able or even bother to collect their voting cards a.k.a PVC.

However, it is estimated that at least 70% of the registered voters will collect their PVC which puts the number of likely voters at 56 million. Out of this figure, it is projected that at least 42 million votes will be cast at 75% projected voter turn out.

Arguably, this election could record the highest voter turn out in the history of elections in Nigeria.

POPULAR VOTES:
In terms of the popular votes, the APC seem to have an edge in the big two- Lagos and Kano- controlled by APC Governors.

The total number of registered voters for only Lagos and Kano is
12,028,038 which is 14% of the total number of registered voters. This says a lot about the likely outcome of the election in terms of popular votes.

APC is certain to win the popular votes and in a good position to satisfy the constitutional requirement of 1/4 in at least 2/3 of the 36 states and the FCT. It is highly likely the APC will satisfy this requirement.

The total number of registered voters for only Lagos and Kano is about the total number of votes scored by the PDP nationwide in the 2015 Presidential elections.

The APC scored just over 2 million votes in 2015 compared to the total number of registered voters for Lagos and Kano in the coming 2019 elections.

In the 2015 Presidential elections, voter turn out was 43.65% but this is likely to increase in 2019 to 70% going by the increased voter awareness and the seeming high stakes in the election. The successes recorded by INEC under Prof Jega in 2015
will also encourage voters to go out and cast their votes. There is also the monetisation factor with increased likelihood of bought-buying in the 2019 elections. Generally, voters will have a fair confidence that their votes will count.

GEOPOLITICAL ZONES:
With a cult followership in the North-West geopolitical zone, President Buhari is in pole position to win the popular votes landslide.

Our projection of the popular votes for the two worthy candidates is as follows:

MUHAMMADU BUHARI (APC):
North-West = 11.5 million votes
North- East = 4 million votes
South -West = 7 million votes
North-Central = 4 million votes
South -East= 1.5 million votes
South- South = 2 million
PROJECTED TOTAL VOTES FOR PRESIDENT BUHARI = 30 million (71.4%)

ATIKU ABUBAKAR (PDP)
North-West = 1.5 million votes
North- East = 2 million votes
South -West = 2 million votes
North-Central = 2.5 million votes
South -East= 3 million votes
South- South = 1 million
PROJECTED TOTAL VOTES FOR ATIKU ABUBAKAR = 12 Million (28.5%)

STATE BY STATE ANALYSIS:
Opposition PDP currently controls 11 states while the ruling APC controls 24. APGA controls 1 state.
In the 2019 Presidential elections, the spread of votes is predicted as follows:

The President Buhari led-APC will likely win 26 states and the FCT (to secure the mandatory 25% of the votes): Lagos, Kano, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno, Yobe, Niger, Edo, Akwa Ibom, FCT, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, Niger, Nassarawa, Edo, Kwara, Plateau, Osun.

The Atiku Abubakar led-PDP will likely win 10 states (to secure the mandatory 25% of the votes): Rivers, Enugu, Anambra, Ebonyi, Delta, Cross Rivers, Taraba, Benue, Abia, Bayelsa.

BATTLEGROUND STATES: Battleground states also known as swing states are those states where the two dominant parties – APC and the PDP- have equal strength hence a fiercer fight is expected between the two.

Battleground states in Nigeria don’t usually decide the Presidential election.
There aren’t too many swing states in the 2019 Presidential elections but with hindsight, one could expect a tough battle in the North-Central states of Kwara (likely to be won by the APC), Plateau (likely to be won by APC) and Kogi (likely to be won by the PDP).

WHAT NEXT AFTER 2019?
The country should brace up for legal fireworks after the 2019 election because the PDP will cry foul and rush to court.

As a matter of fact, the body language of the PDP indicates that they may have conceded defeat but only waiting to go to court after the elections.
PDP’s motivation that they could get ‘something’ from the court stems from their belief that the international community is on ‘their side’ after the Justice Onnoghen saga.

However, the international community – U.S and its allies- is likely going to maintain their diginified neutral stand before and after the 2019 elections.

After losing their court cases on the 2019 elections, the PDP may decimate within as the gladiators go their separate ways. What brings PDP together is power and since they are not getting it, they will go their separate ways.

For the APC, their travails will start in 2023 when the ‘glue’ that holds the party together, President Buhari would have finished his second term. Everyone will be on their own.

What could save the APC in the run-up to 2023 is if the party falls into the hands of a crop of young and determined politicians who will appeal to the electorate in the spirit of generational change. Nigerians really want a young President out-of-the-box after President Buhari.

It will be left to be seen if the current leaders of the APC will let go. Quite honestly, if you take out President Buhari from the APC, what you will have is an empty box of matches.

CONCLUSION
Our projected result indicate that President Buhari of the APC will win the 2019 Presidential elections with 30,000,000 votes or 71.4% while Atiku Abubakar, Waziri Adamawa will score 12,000,000 votes or 28.5%.